It is evident Donald Trump is the obvious favourite to win the Republican nomination for Presidential candidate.
Despite recent rows and apparently damaging televised debates, Trump is still odds-on favourite at the bookies, and with GOP voters.
Indeed, despite being his closest rivals, and lambasting him with criticism in the latest TV debate, both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio say they would back Trump should he win the nomination by the final primary in June.
Nevertheless, there are two possible scenarios that could play out if Trump does actually win the nomination.
Firstly, in Scenario A there is a chance Trump is merely benefiting from a lacklustre field of opponents; lacklustre in the eyes of GOP voters when compared with Trump, perhaps, as his two main rivals are (objectively) competent politicians.
For this reason, it is unsurprising he would be benefiting from a split vote, in which he is the centre of attention. Thus, that wave of anger and fear which he is benefiting from could sail him straight to victory.
Here is the rub, however: Trump might be successful amongst a majority of his own party, but how do they stack up with the Democrats?
Quite well, in fact. Turnout in the GOP’s Super Tuesday primaries totalled 8.5 million, up from 4.7 million in the same 11 states in 2012.
Meanwhile, a rather disappointing 5.9 million Democrats turned out for their 11 states nation-wide, down some 2.6 million on 2008.
Therefore, Trump’s support will count for more, so long as his share of the vote remains relatively in tandem with his main Democrat rival Hilary Clinton.
Except, it does not. In some states, Trump is on average 24.8% behind Clinton’s share of the vote in those states they both won on Super Tuesday.
There then remains a possibility that, should Clinton win the Democrat nomination, she saturates Trump’s vote, as a number of GOP voters decide they would rather have her than Trump.
One suspects this wave of excitement carrying Trump on may perhaps fade, and instead be replaced by shock that he has actually been nominated, resulting in Clinton sucking up those Republicans who are concerned for the future of the GOP under him.
And this leads us to Scenario B. We have already seen how Trump’s nomination could mean a boost to Clinton, but let us imagine a second situation. Namely: Trump being elected as president.
In this, there are a further two scenarios, Scenarios B.1 and B.2.
B.1 is already rearing its head, as was seen in Mitt Romney’s refusal to support Trump.
“There’s no question I’m going to do everything within the normal political bounds to make sure we don’t nominate Donald Trump,” he said this Friday.
“I think he would be terribly unfit for office. I don’t think he has the temperament to be president and so I want to see one of the other three [Republican candidates] become the nominee.”
If we take Romney’s view and extrapolate his view to that of a number of Republican’s, who could make Trump just another Obama, if they maintain control of Congress.
Furthermore, Trump’s declining to speak at the CPAC conference on Friday. If his previous appearances are anything to go by, he is not heavily supported by the young libertarian crowd, so he had little to lose in refusing to speak.
Nevertheless, the event is a big one in the conservative calendar, and his absence could spark animosity in his own party towards him.
He has said before he would run as an independent, but that increases the likelihood of coming across stumbling blocks when attempting to actually perform as president – as Obama could easily tell him.
B.2 is that the GOP accept Trump as a radical force of change, and unite behind him. We have seen this already as Chris Christie has pledged his backing for Trump, along with Cruz’s and Rubio’s statements in the debate.
In this scenario there is little that stands between Trump and whatever he wants to do…if the GOP hold Congress. If not, there is another milestone he has to climb.
On one hand, one might see why the GOP could perhaps lose Congress. Their general refusal to allow Obama to act as an efficient president could backfire on them, and cause people to view them as petty and incompetent.
On the other, they may secure it, due to the anger of many Republicans over Obama and the establishment in general.
This naive commentator believes, though, this will never have to be considered. I am confident Scenario A will play out, and Trump will find Clinton a heavier cookie to handle than his party rivals.
I say that with some hope – Trump has already blown out all expectations.